Segment-Specific Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Cumene Pipeline
Client: Global Chemical Manufacturer and Distributor
Challenge
A global chemical manufacturer operates a 12-inch carbon steel pipeline transporting cumene (isopropyl benzene) from a marine loading dock to an onshore storage tank. Because of its proximity to the Gulf of America, the pipeline is designated as a High Consequence Area (HCA) and therefore regulated under 49 CFR Part 195 (§195.452). To comply with federal integrity management requirements and reduce risk exposure, the client engaged Altamira to perform a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as part of its pipeline Integrity Management Program (IMP).
Solution
Altamira implemented a segment-specific, data-driven QRA methodology integrating in-line inspection (ILI) data, design parameters and operating history. Our customized approach used in this project included:
- Dynamic Segmentation: The pipeline was divided using ILI odometer readings to align risk quantification with actual feature locations.
- Likelihood of Failure (LOF): The following threat categories were modeled in accordance with API 1160 and ASME B31.8S:
- Time dependent threats were evaluated via engineering critical assessments and remaining life analysis.
- Stable threats were based on ILI results and industry failure statistics.
- Time-independent threats were assessed using a scenario-based model.
- Interactive threats were assessed through anomaly interaction modeling.
- Consequence of Failure (COF): Quantified impacts were calculated based on:
- Personnel Safety: Exposure to flammable, toxic or explosive hazards
- Environment: Spill volume, cleanup and ecological restoration costs
- Business: Property damage, repair, product loss, legal exposure and reputation
- Risk Quantification: Each segment’s total risk was calculated in monetary terms ($/year) as the product of LOF × COF.
Results
The risk levels along the entire pipeline length were categorized as “High”, “Medium” and “Low”. The model ranks the pipeline segments by risk along the pipeline route and pinpoints high-risk features at specific locations in the clients’ Geographic Information System (GIS). Preventive and mitigative measures were recommended to mitigate the risk of pipeline failure towards the accepted level of As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP).
The methodology used for the risk assessment meets and exceeds 49 CFR 195 requirements. Altamira’s proprietary QRA model applies first-principle algorithms to quantify exposure, damage probability and mitigation effectiveness — providing actionable insight for risk-informed decision-making across the asset lifecycle. The QRA model quantitatively outputs the frequency of failure with respect to damage mechanisms, consequence of failure and risk of failure with mitigative measures taken. The findings enabled the client to make confident, data-driven decisions on resource allocation for risk reduction, balancing operational practicality while maximizing return on investment (ROI).
For more information, please contact TK Akins, Vice President, Integrity.
TK can be reached at tk.akins@altamira-us.com
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